openclaw-master-skills/skills/signalradar

SignalRadar

信号雷达 — Monitor Polymarket prediction markets for probability changes. Get alerts when thresholds are crossed.

监控 Polymarket 预测市场概率变化，超过阈值时推送通知。

You choose exactly which markets to monitor by providing Polymarket URLs. Zero dependencies (Python stdlib only).

你通过提供 Polymarket 链接来精确选择要监控的市场。零依赖（仅使用 Python 标准库）。

Quick Start / 快速开始

git clone https://github.com/vahnxu/signalradar.git
cd signalradar

# 1. Health check / 健康检查
python3 scripts/signalradar.py doctor --output json

# 2. Add markets (guided setup or by URL) / 添加市场（引导式或通过链接）
python3 scripts/signalradar.py add
python3 scripts/signalradar.py add https://polymarket.com/event/gpt5-release-june

# 3. Monitoring auto-starts after first add (every 10 min)
# 首次添加后自动启动监控（每 10 分钟）

# 4. Check schedule status / 查看调度状态
python3 scripts/signalradar.py schedule

# 5. Manual check (dry-run) / 手动检查（试运行）
python3 scripts/signalradar.py run --dry-run --output json

First run records baselines. Subsequent runs detect changes and send alerts. 首次运行记录基线。后续运行检测变化并发送警报。

How It Works / 工作原理

User adds URL  --->  SignalRadar  --->  Delivery Adapter
用户添加链接         (detect change)     (alert you)
                     检测变化              通知你
                     threshold check
                     阈值检查

1. You add markets by URL (add) / 通过链接添加市场
2. SignalRadar fetches live probability from Polymarket API / 从 Polymarket API 获取实时概率
3. Compares against recorded baseline / 与记录的基线对比
4. Sends alert when change exceeds threshold (default: 5 percentage points) / 变化超过阈值时发送警报（默认：5 个百分点）
5. Baseline updates after each alert / 每次警报后基线更新

Commands / 命令

# First-time setup (bot mode, 3-step) / 首次设置（bot 模式，3 步）
python3 scripts/signalradar.py onboard --step preview --output json
python3 scripts/signalradar.py onboard --step confirm --keep 1,2,3 --output json
python3 scripts/signalradar.py onboard --step finalize --output json

# Add a market (guided setup or by URL) / 添加市场（引导式或通过链接）
python3 scripts/signalradar.py add                              # Guided setup (terminal) / 引导式（终端）
python3 scripts/signalradar.py add <polymarket-url> [--category AI]

# List all monitored entries / 列出所有监控条目
python3 scripts/signalradar.py list

# Show one monitored market / 查看单个监控市场
python3 scripts/signalradar.py show 2
python3 scripts/signalradar.py show gpt --output json

# Remove an entry by number / 按编号移除条目
python3 scripts/signalradar.py remove 3

# Run a check / 执行检查
python3 scripts/signalradar.py run [--dry-run] [--output json|openclaw]

# View or change settings / 查看或修改设置
python3 scripts/signalradar.py config [key] [value]
python3 scripts/signalradar.py config threshold.abs_pp 8.0

# Manage auto-monitoring schedule / 管理自动监控调度
python3 scripts/signalradar.py schedule [N|disable] [--driver auto|crontab|openclaw]

# Preview or send periodic digest / 预览或发送定期报告
python3 scripts/signalradar.py digest [--dry-run] [--force] [--output text|json|openclaw]

# Health check / 健康检查
python3 scripts/signalradar.py doctor --output json

For event URLs that expand to more than 3 markets, add now force-shows a market preview (count, type summary, and market list) and requires interactive confirmation. --yes is rejected on that large-batch path.

对于展开后超过 3 个市场的事件链接，add 现在会强制先展示市场预览（数量、类型摘要、市场列表），并要求交互确认；该大批量路径下 --yes 会被拒绝。

Delivery: Get Alerts Your Way / 推送方式

Webhook (Recommended / 推荐) — Slack, Discord, Telegram Bot API, etc.

Portable across all platforms (OpenClaw, Claude Code, standalone). Zero LLM cost when paired with crontab scheduling. 可跨所有平台使用（OpenClaw、Claude Code、独立部署）。配合 crontab 调度，零 LLM 成本。

{
  "delivery": {
    "primary": {
      "channel": "webhook",
      "target": "https://hooks.slack.com/services/YOUR/WEBHOOK/URL"
    }
  }
}

Save as ~/.signalradar/config/signalradar_config.json. / 保存为 ~/.signalradar/config/signalradar_config.json。

File (local JSONL log) / 文件（本地 JSONL 日志）

{
  "delivery": {
    "primary": {
      "channel": "file",
      "target": "/path/to/alerts.jsonl"
    }
  }
}

OpenClaw (platform messaging / 平台消息 — OpenClaw only)

Default when installed via ClawHub. Not portable to other platforms. See OpenClaw install below. 通过 ClawHub 安装时为默认选项。不可移植到其他平台。见下方 OpenClaw 安装。

Auto-Monitoring / 自动监控

SignalRadar attempts to auto-enable 10-minute background monitoring after the first successful add or onboard finalize (v0.9.0). Prefers system crontab with --push (zero LLM cost); falls back to openclaw cron when crontab is unavailable.

Route gate (OpenClaw users): When using openclaw delivery with crontab scheduling, auto-monitoring requires a captured reply route (~/.signalradar/cache/openclaw_reply_route.json). If no route is stored, the CLI refuses to arm the cron job and returns route_missing — it will not silently enable a schedule that cannot push. The route is automatically captured during any foreground bot interaction. Use schedule --output json to check route_ready status.

SignalRadar 在首次 add 或 onboard finalize 成功后尝试自动启用 10 分钟后台监控（v0.9.0）。默认优先使用系统 crontab + --push（零 LLM 成本）；仅在 crontab 不可用时回退到 openclaw cron。Route gate：当推送通道为 openclaw + crontab 驱动 + 尚无已捕获的 reply route 时，CLI 拒绝启用 cron 任务并返回 route_missing，不会静默启用一个无法推送的调度。Route 在任意前台 bot 交互时自动捕获。用 schedule --output json 检查 route_ready 状态。

If profile.language is still empty on the first successful add, SignalRadar snapshots the detected system-message language into user config so background notifications stay consistent. 如果首次 add 成功时 profile.language 仍为空，SignalRadar 会把检测到的系统文案语言写入用户配置，避免后台通知再依赖瞬时环境猜测。

signalradar.py schedule              # Show current status / 显示当前状态
signalradar.py schedule 30           # Auto driver (crontab-first) / 自动选择驱动（优先 crontab）
signalradar.py schedule 10 --driver openclaw  # Force OpenClaw cron / 强制使用 OpenClaw cron
signalradar.py schedule 10 --driver crontab   # Force system crontab / 强制使用系统 crontab
signalradar.py schedule disable      # Disable auto-monitoring / 禁用自动监控

Runtime Data Directory / 运行数据目录

SignalRadar stores user data outside the skill directory so clawhub update will not wipe your watchlist or baselines.

SignalRadar 将用户数据存放在 skill 目录外，避免 clawhub update 覆盖监控列表和基线。

• Default data root / 默认数据目录：~/.signalradar/
• Config / 配置：~/.signalradar/config/signalradar_config.json
• Watchlist / 监控列表：~/.signalradar/config/watchlist.json
• Baselines / 基线：~/.signalradar/cache/baselines/
• Audit log / 审计日志：~/.signalradar/cache/events/signal_events.jsonl
• Last run metadata / 最近运行状态：~/.signalradar/cache/last_run.json
• Digest snapshot state / 周报快照状态：~/.signalradar/cache/digest_state.json

For local testing, override with SIGNALRADAR_DATA_DIR=/tmp/signalradar. 本地测试可使用 SIGNALRADAR_DATA_DIR=/tmp/signalradar 覆盖默认目录。

Threshold vs Frequency / 阈值 vs 频率

• Threshold / 阈值 — how much probability must change before an alert fires. Use config to adjust. 概率需要变化多少才触发警报。用 config 调整。
• Frequency / 频率 — how often SignalRadar checks markets. Use schedule to adjust. SignalRadar 多久检查一次市场。用 schedule 调整。

Understanding Results / 理解运行结果

Status	Meaning / 含义
BASELINE	First observation. Baseline recorded, no alert. / 首次观测，记录基线，不发警报。
SILENT	Change below threshold. No alert. / 变化低于阈值，不发警报。
HIT	Threshold crossed. Alert sent. Baseline updated. / 超过阈值，发送警报，基线更新。
NO_REPLY	No markets crossed threshold. / 无市场超过阈值。

Example HIT / HIT 示例：

GPT-5 release by June 2026: 32% -> 41% (+9pp), crossing 5pp threshold. Baseline updated to 41%.
GPT-5 在 2026 年 6 月前发布：32% -> 41%（+9pp），超过 5pp 阈值。基线已更新至 41%。

Configuration / 配置

All optional. Works out of the box with defaults. 全部可选。开箱即用，默认配置即可运行。

Setting / 设置	Default / 默认值	Description / 说明
threshold.abs_pp	5.0	Alert threshold in percentage points / 警报阈值（百分点）
threshold.per_category_abs_pp	{}	Per-category override / 按分类覆盖阈值
delivery.primary.channel	webhook	Supported: webhook (recommended), openclaw, file / 支持的推送通道
digest.frequency	weekly	off, daily, weekly, biweekly / 定期报告频率
digest.day_of_week	monday	Weekly digest weekday / 定期报告星期
digest.time_local	09:00	Local send time for digest / 定期报告本地发送时间
digest.top_n	10	Top movers shown in human digest / 周报文本中展示的最大变化条目数
baseline.cleanup_after_expiry_days	90	Baseline cleanup after market ends / 市场到期后清理基线天数
profile.language	""	System-message locale (zh / en), empty = automatic detection (env first, timezone fallback) / 系统文案语言

See references/config.md for full reference. / 完整参考请查看 references/config.md。

run --output json keeps the frozen fields (status, request_id, ts, hits, errors) and may include an observations array for agent-side filtering.

run --output openclaw is reserved for platform scheduling. It prints HEARTBEAT_OK on quiet runs, user-ready alert text on HIT runs, and digest text when a scheduled digest is due and the primary delivery channel is openclaw.

add --output json returns structured added / skipped results and includes a schedule object when the first successful add attempts auto-monitoring (the object is present even when route gate blocks arming, with auto_enabled: false). onboard --step finalize --output json returns its own ONBOARD_COMPLETE payload with a separate schedule field.

digest --output json returns a structured digest preview/snapshot. Human-readable digest text groups large multi-market events by event and shows top movers instead of dumping every market.

Digest / 定期报告

SignalRadar v0.8.3 includes a periodic digest. It compares the current monitored state against the previous digest snapshot, not against the per-run alert baseline.

SignalRadar v0.8.3 已包含定期报告功能。它比较的是“当前监控状态”和“上一份周报快照”，而不是单次运行的告警基线。

• Includes both markets that already triggered realtime HIT alerts and markets with net-over-period changes that never crossed the realtime threshold. 同时包含“已触发实时 HIT 的市场”和“虽然没触发实时阈值、但周期净变化依然明显的市场”。
• Uses grouped event summaries for large multi-market events. 对大量子市场的事件使用按事件分组的摘要展示。
• Full detail remains available via digest --output json. 完整明细通过 digest --output json 提供。
• The first automatic digest is bootstrap-only: SignalRadar records the initial digest snapshot silently, then starts user-facing automatic digest delivery from the next report cycle. Use digest --force if you want an immediate preview. 首次自动周报只做静默建快照：SignalRadar 会先记录初始周报快照，从下一个周期开始才自动向用户发送周报。如需立即预览，请使用 digest --force。

OpenClaw Install / OpenClaw 安装

If you use OpenClaw, install directly from the marketplace: 如果你使用 OpenClaw，可以直接从市场安装：

clawhub install signalradar

Requirements / 运行要求

• Python 3.9+
• Network access to gamma-api.polymarket.com / 需要网络访问 gamma-api.polymarket.com
• No pip dependencies (stdlib only) / 无 pip 依赖（仅标准库）

License / 许可

MIT