diff --git a/src/commands/doctor.ts b/src/commands/doctor.ts
index 3a3efbf50..1b514e18c 100644
--- a/src/commands/doctor.ts
+++ b/src/commands/doctor.ts
@@ -40,7 +40,7 @@ import {
   buildBasenameIndex,
   queryBasenameIndex,
 } from '../core/link-extraction.ts';
-import { isSourceUnchangedSinceSync } from '../core/git-head.ts';
+import { probeSourceGitState } from '../core/git-head.ts';
 // v0.41.32.0: remote staleness reads the stored newest_content_at column via
 // this pure comparator (no git subprocess on the HTTP MCP doctor path).
 import { lagFromContentMs } from '../core/source-health.ts';
@@ -4062,29 +4062,51 @@ export async function checkSyncFreshness(
       // All four must hold; otherwise fall through to the time-based check.
       // The chunker version match is computed here (not in the helper)
       // because it depends on engine state, not git state.
+      //
+      // Clone-unavailable fallback: on stateless deploys (Docker on EB /
+      // K8s / Fly — the platforms the cloud recipes produce), a container
+      // restart wipes `local_path` and each clone is only re-materialized
+      // when that source's next sync job runs. Until then the HEAD probe
+      // cannot run at all ('unavailable'), which previously fell through to
+      // raw wall-clock age — and since a no-op sync doesn't advance
+      // `last_sync_at`, every QUIET source read as stale/FAIL after a
+      // restart (score-sinking alert storm; observed live: 16-source brain,
+      // 12 clones gone after a config-update restart, doctor 70→30).
+      // 'unavailable' + chunker match now reuses the v0.41.32.0 REMOTE lag
+      // signal (newest_content_at) below — DB-only, no subprocess, and it
+      // still reports staleness whenever content really is newer than the
+      // last sync. 'changed' (readable clone with real work) keeps
+      // wall-clock exactly as before, and a chunker mismatch is never
+      // masked (D7): it disables the fallback too.
+      let cloneUnavailable = false;
       if (localOnly) {
-        const gitUnchanged = isSourceUnchangedSinceSync(
+        const gitState = probeSourceGitState(
           source.local_path,
           source.last_commit,
           { requireCleanWorkingTree: 'ignore-untracked' },
         );
         const chunkerMatch = source.chunker_version === currentChunkerVersion;
-        if (gitUnchanged && chunkerMatch) {
+        if (gitState === 'unchanged' && chunkerMatch) {
           unchanged_count++;
           continue;
         }
+        cloneUnavailable = gitState === 'unavailable' && chunkerMatch;
       }
 
       // v0.41.32.0: REMOTE path (doctorReportRemote, !localOnly) computes lag
       // from the stored newest_content_at column — NO git subprocess on a
       // DB-supplied local_path (preserves the v0.41.27.0 trust boundary). A
       // quiet repo whose newest commit predates its last sync reports 0; NULL
-      // column → wall-clock fallback. LOCAL fall-through keeps wall-clock: the
-      // short-circuit already failed, so the source genuinely has work and
-      // "hours since last sync" is the right staleness measure. The `ageMs < 0`
-      // skew check above still runs on raw wall-clock for both paths (A1).
+      // column → wall-clock fallback. LOCAL fall-through keeps wall-clock when
+      // the clone is READABLE: the short-circuit failed on real evidence
+      // (HEAD moved / dirty tree), so the source genuinely has work and
+      // "hours since last sync" is the right staleness measure. A local clone
+      // that is UNAVAILABLE (not yet re-materialized, see above) carries no
+      // evidence either way, so it borrows this same DB-only lag. The
+      // `ageMs < 0` skew check above still runs on raw wall-clock for both
+      // paths (A1).
       let thresholdAgeMs = ageMs;
-      if (!localOnly) {
+      if (!localOnly || cloneUnavailable) {
         const contentMs = source.newest_content_at
           ? new Date(source.newest_content_at).getTime()
           : null;
diff --git a/src/core/git-head.ts b/src/core/git-head.ts
index 94955e79a..4dd61fae8 100644
--- a/src/core/git-head.ts
+++ b/src/core/git-head.ts
@@ -96,29 +96,71 @@ export interface GitFreshnessOpts {
 }
 
 /**
- * Returns true iff `localPath` is a git repo whose current HEAD matches
- * `lastCommit`, AND (when `requireCleanWorkingTree`) the working tree
- * is clean.
+ * Three-state git probe verdict for a federated source clone.
+ *
+ *   - `'unchanged'`:   HEAD matches `last_commit` (and, when requested, the
+ *                      working tree is clean). Sync has nothing to do.
+ *   - `'changed'`:     the clone is readable but HEAD moved, the tree is
+ *                      dirty, or the DB never recorded a `last_commit` —
+ *                      sync genuinely has (or may have) work.
+ *   - `'unavailable'`: the HEAD probe itself could not run — the clone
+ *                      directory is missing, not a git repo, or git errored.
+ *                      On stateless deploys (containers on EB / K8s / Fly,
+ *                      where `local_path` dies with the filesystem and is
+ *                      lazily re-materialized by the next per-source sync)
+ *                      this is a NORMAL steady state for quiet sources, not
+ *                      evidence of pending work. Callers can fall back to a
+ *                      DB-only freshness signal instead of wall-clock age.
+ */
+export type SourceGitState = 'unchanged' | 'changed' | 'unavailable';
+
+/**
+ * Probe a source clone and classify it (see `SourceGitState`).
  *
  * This is NOT a full mirror of `gbrain sync`'s "do work?" predicate.
  * Chunker-version match is computed by the caller because it depends on
  * engine state (`sources.chunker_version` vs `CURRENT_CHUNKER_VERSION`).
  * See `src/commands/doctor.ts:checkSyncFreshness` for the AND
  * combination at the call site.
+ *
+ * NULL-input guard stays first: a NULL `last_commit` (legacy row) returns
+ * `'changed'` WITHOUT running the head probe — same short-circuit contract
+ * `isSourceUnchangedSinceSync` always had (pinned by doctor.test.ts case 4).
+ */
+export function probeSourceGitState(
+  localPath: string | null | undefined,
+  lastCommit: string | null | undefined,
+  opts?: GitFreshnessOpts,
+): SourceGitState {
+  if (!localPath || !lastCommit) return 'changed';
+  const head = _headProbe(localPath);
+  if (head === null) return 'unavailable';
+  if (head !== lastCommit) return 'changed';
+  if (opts?.requireCleanWorkingTree) {
+    const ignoreUntracked = opts.requireCleanWorkingTree === 'ignore-untracked';
+    const isClean = _cleanProbe(localPath, ignoreUntracked);
+    // null (probe error) AND false (known dirty) both fail the gate. A clean
+    // probe error with a READABLE head is not classified 'unavailable' —
+    // fail toward "may have work" so the gate can only relax, never mask.
+    if (isClean !== true) return 'changed';
+  }
+  return 'unchanged';
+}
+
+/**
+ * Returns true iff `localPath` is a git repo whose current HEAD matches
+ * `lastCommit`, AND (when `requireCleanWorkingTree`) the working tree
+ * is clean.
+ *
+ * Boolean façade over `probeSourceGitState` — `'unavailable'` and
+ * `'changed'` both collapse to `false`, preserving the v0.41.27.0
+ * fail-open contract for callers that only care about the short-circuit
+ * (`src/core/source-health.ts`).
  */
 export function isSourceUnchangedSinceSync(
   localPath: string | null | undefined,
   lastCommit: string | null | undefined,
   opts?: GitFreshnessOpts,
 ): boolean {
-  if (!localPath || !lastCommit) return false;
-  const head = _headProbe(localPath);
-  if (head === null || head !== lastCommit) return false;
-  if (opts?.requireCleanWorkingTree) {
-    const ignoreUntracked = opts.requireCleanWorkingTree === 'ignore-untracked';
-    const isClean = _cleanProbe(localPath, ignoreUntracked);
-    // null (probe error) AND false (known dirty) both fail the gate.
-    if (isClean !== true) return false;
-  }
-  return true;
+  return probeSourceGitState(localPath, lastCommit, opts) === 'unchanged';
 }
diff --git a/test/core/git-head.test.ts b/test/core/git-head.test.ts
index a84251143..763e66432 100644
--- a/test/core/git-head.test.ts
+++ b/test/core/git-head.test.ts
@@ -12,6 +12,7 @@ import { tmpdir } from 'node:os';
 import { join } from 'node:path';
 import {
   isSourceUnchangedSinceSync,
+  probeSourceGitState,
   _setGitHeadProbeForTests,
   _setGitCleanProbeForTests,
   type GitHeadProbe,
@@ -176,3 +177,60 @@ describe('isSourceUnchangedSinceSync — requireCleanWorkingTree (D7)', () => {
     expect(cleanCalls).toBe(0);
   });
 });
+
+describe('probeSourceGitState — three-state verdict', () => {
+  test('state 1: HEAD matches + clean → unchanged', () => {
+    _setGitHeadProbeForTests(() => 'abc123');
+    _setGitCleanProbeForTests(() => true);
+    expect(probeSourceGitState('/tmp/repo', 'abc123', { requireCleanWorkingTree: 'ignore-untracked' }))
+      .toBe('unchanged');
+  });
+
+  test('state 2: HEAD probe null (clone missing / not a repo / git error) → unavailable', () => {
+    _setGitHeadProbeForTests(() => null);
+    expect(probeSourceGitState('/tmp/gone', 'abc123')).toBe('unavailable');
+  });
+
+  test('state 3: HEAD mismatch → changed', () => {
+    _setGitHeadProbeForTests(() => 'def456');
+    expect(probeSourceGitState('/tmp/repo', 'abc123')).toBe('changed');
+  });
+
+  test('state 4: dirty tree with readable HEAD → changed (NOT unavailable)', () => {
+    _setGitHeadProbeForTests(() => 'abc123');
+    _setGitCleanProbeForTests(() => false);
+    expect(probeSourceGitState('/tmp/repo', 'abc123', { requireCleanWorkingTree: true }))
+      .toBe('changed');
+  });
+
+  test('state 5: clean-probe ERROR with readable HEAD → changed (fail toward work)', () => {
+    _setGitHeadProbeForTests(() => 'abc123');
+    _setGitCleanProbeForTests(() => null);
+    expect(probeSourceGitState('/tmp/repo', 'abc123', { requireCleanWorkingTree: true }))
+      .toBe('changed');
+  });
+
+  test('state 6: NULL inputs → changed, head probe never called (case-4 contract)', () => {
+    let probeCalls = 0;
+    _setGitHeadProbeForTests(() => { probeCalls++; return 'abc'; });
+    expect(probeSourceGitState(null, 'abc')).toBe('changed');
+    expect(probeSourceGitState('/tmp/repo', null)).toBe('changed');
+    expect(probeSourceGitState('', '')).toBe('changed');
+    expect(probeCalls).toBe(0);
+  });
+
+  test('state 7: boolean façade parity — isSourceUnchangedSinceSync === (state is unchanged)', () => {
+    _setGitHeadProbeForTests(() => 'abc123');
+    _setGitCleanProbeForTests(() => true);
+    for (const [path, commit] of [
+      ['/tmp/repo', 'abc123'],   // unchanged → true
+      ['/tmp/repo', 'other'],    // changed → false
+    ] as const) {
+      expect(isSourceUnchangedSinceSync(path, commit))
+        .toBe(probeSourceGitState(path, commit) === 'unchanged');
+    }
+    _setGitHeadProbeForTests(() => null);  // unavailable → false
+    expect(isSourceUnchangedSinceSync('/tmp/gone', 'abc123'))
+      .toBe(probeSourceGitState('/tmp/gone', 'abc123') === 'unchanged');
+  });
+});
diff --git a/test/doctor.test.ts b/test/doctor.test.ts
index c9adc3e9e..e7614e8a5 100644
--- a/test/doctor.test.ts
+++ b/test/doctor.test.ts
@@ -1580,3 +1580,174 @@ describe('BUG 4 — in-progress sync via live lock, not stale freshness', () =>
     expect(result.status).toBe('fail');
   });
 });
+
+// ============================================================================
+// sync_freshness — clone-unavailable content-lag fallback (stateless deploys)
+// ============================================================================
+// A container restart (Docker on EB / K8s / Fly) wipes federated clones;
+// each one is only re-materialized when that source's next sync job runs.
+// Until then the LOCAL git short-circuit cannot probe HEAD at all. That is
+// not evidence of pending work, so instead of falling through to raw
+// wall-clock age (which no-op syncs never advance → false stale/FAIL for
+// every quiet source after a restart), the check borrows the REMOTE path's
+// newest_content_at lag (v0.41.32.0). Contracts:
+//   F1: clone unavailable + content at/before last sync → healthy (lag 0).
+//   F2: clone unavailable + content NEWER than last sync → still stale
+//       (wall-clock) — real missed work is never masked.
+//   F3: clone unavailable + NULL newest_content_at → wall-clock fallback
+//       (pre-migration parity with git short-circuit case 5).
+//   F4: chunker mismatch disables the fallback (D7 — a pending re-chunk is
+//       never masked).
+//   F5: a READABLE clone that failed the short-circuit (HEAD moved) keeps
+//       wall-clock even when newest_content_at is old — the fallback is
+//       scoped to 'unavailable' only.
+// ============================================================================
+describe('sync_freshness — clone-unavailable content-lag fallback', () => {
+  function makeStubEngine(rows: any[]): any {
+    return { executeRaw: async () => rows };
+  }
+  function agoMs(ms: number): Date { return new Date(Date.now() - ms); }
+  const HOURS = 60 * 60 * 1000;
+  let currentChunkerVersion: string;
+
+  beforeEach(async () => {
+    const { _setGitHeadProbeForTests, _setGitCleanProbeForTests } =
+      await import('../src/core/git-head.ts');
+    const { CHUNKER_VERSION } = await import('../src/core/chunkers/code.ts');
+    currentChunkerVersion = String(CHUNKER_VERSION);
+    _setGitHeadProbeForTests(null);
+    _setGitCleanProbeForTests(null);
+  });
+
+  afterAll(async () => {
+    const { _setGitHeadProbeForTests, _setGitCleanProbeForTests } =
+      await import('../src/core/git-head.ts');
+    _setGitHeadProbeForTests(null);
+    _setGitCleanProbeForTests(null);
+  });
+
+  test('F1: quiet source, clone gone, content predates last sync → ok', async () => {
+    const { checkSyncFreshness } = await import('../src/commands/doctor.ts');
+    const { _setGitHeadProbeForTests, _setGitCleanProbeForTests } =
+      await import('../src/core/git-head.ts');
+    _setGitHeadProbeForTests(() => null);  // clone not re-materialized yet
+    _setGitCleanProbeForTests(() => true);
+
+    const result = await checkSyncFreshness(makeStubEngine([
+      { id: 'quiet-docs', name: '', local_path: '/tmp/quiet-docs',
+        last_sync_at: agoMs(40 * HOURS),
+        last_commit: 'abc', chunker_version: currentChunkerVersion,
+        newest_content_at: agoMs(72 * HOURS) },  // content older than last sync
+    ]), { localOnly: true });
+
+    expect(result.status).toBe('ok');
+    expect(result.details).toEqual({
+      unchanged_count: 0, synced_recently_count: 1, stale_count: 0,
+    });
+  });
+
+  test('F2: clone gone but content NEWER than last sync → warn (real work not masked)', async () => {
+    const { checkSyncFreshness } = await import('../src/commands/doctor.ts');
+    const { _setGitHeadProbeForTests, _setGitCleanProbeForTests } =
+      await import('../src/core/git-head.ts');
+    _setGitHeadProbeForTests(() => null);
+    _setGitCleanProbeForTests(() => true);
+
+    const result = await checkSyncFreshness(makeStubEngine([
+      { id: 'missed-work', name: '', local_path: '/tmp/missed-work',
+        last_sync_at: agoMs(40 * HOURS),
+        last_commit: 'abc', chunker_version: currentChunkerVersion,
+        newest_content_at: agoMs(1 * HOURS) },  // content NEWER than last sync
+    ]), { localOnly: true });
+
+    expect(result.status).toBe('warn');
+    expect(result.message).toMatch(/40h ago/);
+    expect(result.details?.stale_count).toBe(1);
+  });
+
+  test('F3: clone gone + NULL newest_content_at → wall-clock fallback (warn)', async () => {
+    const { checkSyncFreshness } = await import('../src/commands/doctor.ts');
+    const { _setGitHeadProbeForTests, _setGitCleanProbeForTests } =
+      await import('../src/core/git-head.ts');
+    _setGitHeadProbeForTests(() => null);
+    _setGitCleanProbeForTests(() => true);
+
+    const result = await checkSyncFreshness(makeStubEngine([
+      { id: 'pre-migration', name: '', local_path: '/tmp/pre-migration',
+        last_sync_at: agoMs(40 * HOURS),
+        last_commit: 'abc', chunker_version: currentChunkerVersion,
+        newest_content_at: null },
+    ]), { localOnly: true });
+
+    expect(result.status).toBe('warn');
+    expect(result.details?.stale_count).toBe(1);
+  });
+
+  test('F4: clone gone + chunker MISMATCH → fallback disabled, wall-clock warn', async () => {
+    const { checkSyncFreshness } = await import('../src/commands/doctor.ts');
+    const { _setGitHeadProbeForTests, _setGitCleanProbeForTests } =
+      await import('../src/core/git-head.ts');
+    _setGitHeadProbeForTests(() => null);
+    _setGitCleanProbeForTests(() => true);
+
+    const result = await checkSyncFreshness(makeStubEngine([
+      { id: 'needs-rechunk', name: '', local_path: '/tmp/needs-rechunk',
+        last_sync_at: agoMs(40 * HOURS),
+        last_commit: 'abc',
+        chunker_version: '0',  // STALE — re-chunk pending
+        newest_content_at: agoMs(72 * HOURS) },
+    ]), { localOnly: true });
+
+    expect(result.status).toBe('warn');
+    expect(result.details?.stale_count).toBe(1);
+  });
+
+  test('F5: readable clone, HEAD moved → wall-clock even with old content', async () => {
+    const { checkSyncFreshness } = await import('../src/commands/doctor.ts');
+    const { _setGitHeadProbeForTests, _setGitCleanProbeForTests } =
+      await import('../src/core/git-head.ts');
+    _setGitHeadProbeForTests(() => 'NEW-HEAD');  // clone readable, real work
+    _setGitCleanProbeForTests(() => true);
+
+    const result = await checkSyncFreshness(makeStubEngine([
+      { id: 'has-commits', name: '', local_path: '/tmp/has-commits',
+        last_sync_at: agoMs(40 * HOURS),
+        last_commit: 'OLD-HEAD', chunker_version: currentChunkerVersion,
+        newest_content_at: agoMs(72 * HOURS) },
+    ]), { localOnly: true });
+
+    expect(result.status).toBe('warn');
+    expect(result.message).toMatch(/40h ago/);
+    expect(result.details?.stale_count).toBe(1);
+  });
+
+  test('F6: three-bucket invariant holds across rescued + unchanged + stale', async () => {
+    const { checkSyncFreshness } = await import('../src/commands/doctor.ts');
+    const { _setGitHeadProbeForTests, _setGitCleanProbeForTests } =
+      await import('../src/core/git-head.ts');
+    _setGitHeadProbeForTests((path) => path === '/tmp/frozen' ? 'frozen-sha' : null);
+    _setGitCleanProbeForTests(() => true);
+
+    const result = await checkSyncFreshness(makeStubEngine([
+      { id: 'frozen', name: '', local_path: '/tmp/frozen',        // unchanged bucket
+        last_sync_at: agoMs(40 * HOURS),
+        last_commit: 'frozen-sha', chunker_version: currentChunkerVersion,
+        newest_content_at: agoMs(80 * HOURS) },
+      { id: 'rescued', name: '', local_path: '/tmp/rescued',      // clone gone, quiet → healthy
+        last_sync_at: agoMs(40 * HOURS),
+        last_commit: 'abc', chunker_version: currentChunkerVersion,
+        newest_content_at: agoMs(80 * HOURS) },
+      { id: 'stale', name: '', local_path: '/tmp/stale',          // clone gone, content newer → stale
+        last_sync_at: agoMs(5 * 24 * HOURS),
+        last_commit: 'def', chunker_version: currentChunkerVersion,
+        newest_content_at: agoMs(1 * HOURS) },
+    ]), { localOnly: true });
+
+    expect(result.status).toBe('fail');
+    expect(result.message).toContain(`'stale'`);
+    expect(result.message).not.toContain(`'rescued'`);
+    expect(result.details).toEqual({
+      unchanged_count: 1, synced_recently_count: 1, stale_count: 1,
+    });
+  });
+});